Elliot Wilen (![[info]](http://p-stat.livejournal.com/img/userinfo.gif){kind=small} ewilen) wrote,@ 2008-02-11 18:54:00 |
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A brief political observation
People who are betting real money on the election appear to believe that Obama has a better chance than Hillary in the general election against McCain.
Note that movement in pricing for Hillary and Obama is inversely related--not surprising given that it's a two-person race. However, the betting also shows that Hillary's fortunes are positively correlated with McCain's, while Obama's are inversely correlated with McCain's. I.e., the more likely it is that Obama wins the Democratic nomination, the more likely it is that the Democrats will win in November--or so say the punters.
(Yes, the horizontal scales are off a bit, and the vertical scales are all different, but fixing them won't change anything. Obama up, McCain down.)
You might also want to look at this:
It shows the ongoing pricing for McCain to win the Republican nomination. While some of the movement in McCain's general election prospects is due to some weekend jitters over Huckabee, the Democratic nomination outcome seems to be the major influence.
This shows the trading in the overall Republican chances. Again, it seems to be correlated with the Democratic race, with only a hickup due to Huckabee over the weekend.
People who are betting real money on the election appear to believe that Obama has a better chance than Hillary in the general election against McCain.
Note that movement in pricing for Hillary and Obama is inversely related--not surprising given that it's a two-person race. However, the betting also shows that Hillary's fortunes are positively correlated with McCain's, while Obama's are inversely correlated with McCain's. I.e., the more likely it is that Obama wins the Democratic nomination, the more likely it is that the Democrats will win in November--or so say the punters.
(Yes, the horizontal scales are off a bit, and the vertical scales are all different, but fixing them won't change anything. Obama up, McCain down.)
You might also want to look at this:
It shows the ongoing pricing for McCain to win the Republican nomination. While some of the movement in McCain's general election prospects is due to some weekend jitters over Huckabee, the Democratic nomination outcome seems to be the major influence.
This shows the trading in the overall Republican chances. Again, it seems to be correlated with the Democratic race, with only a hickup due to Huckabee over the weekend.
