This thread concerning '"Channeling" and GNS' on the Forge ended badly. Perhaps its successor
here will be more productive. (Note: "channeling" refers to the practice of "channeling character"--seeing and doing things entirely from the perspective of a character. "Drama", I suppose, refers to the desire for thematic developments in the course of play.)
One thing that came up in the doomed thread was a comment from Ron Edwards that "channeling/drama" conflicts are likely to arise when Narrativist and Simulationist CA's clash, but that a "channeling/drama" conflict doesn't mean that a CA clash is occurring.
It turns out that this is an unbelievably complex assertion. It can be approached from many angles, but before you can even start, you have to grapple with the fundamental limitations of normal speech and how people tend to think about words like "correlation" and "typical" when they aren't being careful.
Suppose you have 100 cases where games went wrong due to either "channel/drama" conflicts or N/S clash. They might break down as:
40 "channel/drama" clash and N/S clash
20 N/S clash only
40 "channel/drama" clash only
With these numbers you could reasonably say that an N/S clash typically entails a "channel/drama" clash, since 67% of all N/S clashes are also "channel/drama" clashes. Conversely you might say that a "channel/drama" clash is just as likely not to involve an N/S clash as it is to have one, so there's nothing "typically N/S" about "channel/drama" clashes.
But let's look at things a little differently. Suppose that in addition to the 100 cases we just talked about, we've also seen some number of clashes which involved neither "channel/drama" nor N/S clash. And now I say that one type of clash is typical of the other, or that the two types of problems are correlated. What does that mean? This opens up an alternate view of "typical", which happens to be the strict definition of "correlation" in mathematical terms. ("Positive correlation", if you want to be picky.) Instead of saying that "X is typical of Y" when X shows up more than 50% of the time that Y is present, we might say that "X is typical of (correlated with) Y" when the presence of Y makes us
more likely to believe that X will show up than we would think otherwise.
Suppose that, other than the 100 cases, there are 10 more clashes that fall into the category "other". Now, if I make a slip of paper for each case, throw them all in a hat, and draw one at random, what's the chance that it will be an N/S clash? Answer: 60/110 = 55%. But what if you draw one at random and tell me that it's a "channel/drama" clash--what is the chance that it's also N/S? Answer: 40/80 = 50%.
Let's look at it from the other direction. Draw a random case: what's the chance it will be a "channeling/drama" clash? Answer: 80/110 = 73%. Now draw a random case and see that it's an N/S clash. The chance that it's also a channeling clash goes down to 40/60 = 67%
In other words, if these 110 cases are representative of all your gaming experience, then seeing one type of clash should make you
less likely to suspect that the other type is present. The two types of clash really aren't "typical" of each other at all, from that perspective. At best, they're just "typical" of the sorts of clashes that turn up in gaming.
But wait a second. Suppose that, instead of 10 "other" cases, there are 100. If you draw a random case now, the chance it'll be "channeling/drama" is 80/200 = 40%. But if you know it's N/S, the chance it's also "channeling/drama" goes
up, to 67%. Conversely, the chance that a random case will be N/S is 60/200 = 30% if you don't know anything else about it. But if you know it entails "channeling/drama", there's a 50% chance that it's also N/S.
Now, even though seeing a "channeling/drama" clash shouldn't make you think that there's a better-than-even chance that the other type is also present, we might still say that they're "typical" of each other--certainly, they're related enough that seeing one of them should make you more likely to suspect that the other is present.
Well, I have to run. This entry was originally going to be "Notes on Correlation and Causation", but I'll have to take that up in the comments.